India’s Business Cycle Index (LEI) fell 0.3% to 158.8 in July, reversing a 0.1% increase in June, with the six-month growth rate also falling from 3.2% to 1.5%.
Meanwhile, the CEI rose 1.1% to 150.9, partially recovering from a decline in June.
The six-month growth rate of the CEI was 2.8%, slightly lower than the previous 3.5%.
India’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a key measure of future economic activity, fell 0.3% in July, bringing the index down to 158.8, according to the Conference Board of India (TCB). The decline was enough to reverse the small 0.1% increase seen in June 2024. The LEI also saw a marked slowdown in growth during the six-month period from January to July 2024, increasing by just 1.5%, half the 3.2% growth during the period from July 2023 to January 2024.
In contrast, the Coincidental Economic Index (CEI) of India, which reflects current economic conditions, showed a more positive trend. In July 2024, the CEI rose by 1.1% to 150.9. This increase partially offset a 2.4% decline in June. In the six-month period from January to July 2024, the CEI rose by 2.8%, but this was slightly lower than the 3.5% increase in the previous six months, according to TCB.
"India's LEI index, while still on an overall upward trend, declined slightly in July. Ian Hu, economic research associate at TCB." Bank credit to the business sector, as well as commodity exports, have largely driven the decline in stock prices and the real effective exchange rate. In addition, the 6-month and 12-month growth rates of the LEI have slowed in recent months.
Post time: Sep-03-2024