The Spring Festival shipment peak is approaching! Shipping Company: 40-feet containers will be insufficient in the first quarter of 2022

Drewry said that with the recent rapid proliferation of Omicron, the risk of supply chain disruption and market volatility will remain high in 2022, and the scenarios that have occurred in the past year seem likely to repeat themselves in 2022.

Therefore, they expect that the turnaround time will be extended, and ports and terminals will be further congested, and they recommend that cargo owners be prepared for more delays and continued high transportation costs.

Maersk: In the first quarter of 2022, 40-feet containers will be in short supply

Due to delays in shipping schedules, capacity will continue to be restricted, and Maersk expects that space will remain very tight during the entire Lunar New Year.

It is expected that the supply of 40-feet containers will be insufficient, but there will be a surplus of 20-feet containers, especially in Greater China, where there will still be container shortages in some areas before the Lunar New Year.

As demand remains strong and there is a large backlog of orders, Maersk expects that the export market will continue to be saturated.

Delays in shipping schedules will cause a drop in capacity, so the space during the Lunar New Year will be even tighter. Overall import demand is expected to remain at a roughly equivalent level.

Suspended flights and jumped ports before the Spring Festival, tight spaces, and interrupted capacity are common

Among the 545 scheduled voyages on major trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-Northern and Asia-Mediterranean routes, 58 voyages were cancelled between week 52 and the third week of next year, with a cancellation rate of 11%.

According to Drewry’s current data, during this period, 66% of blank voyages will take place on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade route, mainly to the west coast of the United States.

According to the data summarized by the easy sailing schedule as of December 21st, a total of Asia to North America/Europe routes will be suspended from December 2021 to January 2022 (that is, the first port will depart from the 48th to 4th week in a total of 9 weeks). 219 voyages, of which:

• 150 voyages to West America;
• 31 voyages in the East of the United States;
• 19 voyages in Northern Europe;
• 19 voyages in the Mediterranean.

From the perspective of alliances, the alliance has 67 voyages, the ocean alliance has 33 voyages, the 2M alliance has 38 voyages, and other independent routes have 81 voyages.

The overall number of suspended flights this year is higher than last year. Compared with the same period last year, the number of suspended flights has also doubled.

Due to the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year holiday (February 1-7), some barge services in southern China will be suspended. It is expected that from now until the Lunar New Year in 2022, freight demand will remain very strong and freight volume will remain at a high level. 

However, the occasional new crown epidemic may still have a certain impact on the customer’s supply chain.

Ship delays and empty shifts on the route from Asia to North America continue. It is expected that the export shipping schedule in January will face more severe challenges, and the entire US route will continue to be tight;

Market demand and space are still in a state of serious supply-demand imbalance. This situation is expected to deteriorate further due to the arrival of the peak shipment on the eve of the Spring Festival, and the market freight rate is expected to usher in another wave of increases.

At the same time, Europe is being attacked by Omi Keron’s new crown virus strain, and European countries have continued to strengthen control measures. The market’s demand for transportation of various materials continues to remain high; and the interruption of capacity will still affect the overall capacity.

At least before the Lunar New Year, the phenomenon of capacity interruption will still be very common.

The situation of empty shifts/jumping of large ships continues. Spaces/empty containers are in a state of tension before the Spring Festival; congestion in European ports has also increased; market demand has stabilized. The recent domestic epidemic has affected overall cargo shipments. It is expected to be January 2022. There will be a wave of peak shipments before the Spring Festival.

The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) shows that market freight rates will remain high.

China-Mediterranean routes continue to experience empty flights/jumping ports, and market demand is gradually increasing. The overall space situation in the second half of the month is tight, and the freight rate in the last week of December increased slightly.